Aging Tradespeople and Immigration Enforcement Strain US Skilled Labor Supply

Stateline reported on October 8 that aging journeymen, tougher immigration enforcement and a building boom for data centers are together straining the supply of skilled trade workers. Automakers and contractors are looking for plumbers, electricians, carpenters, machinists and technicians. These are specialties that are increasingly hard to staff.

The contractors' survey points to a training problem as well as a headcount problem. Applicants are available, but half of the contractors surveyed said too many candidates are unqualified and need more training. The association named data center demand and immigration enforcement as contributing causes of the shortage.

The immigration piece matters because of who does the work. "Over 50% of craft workers are born outside the United States," said Ken Simonson, the association's chief economist. "We don't know that they're illegal but frankly DHS is not being that discriminating in whom they pick up or who feels threatened by them," he said.

Simonson argued for more worker visas for construction and other trades. He said the industry has been "stymied for 20 years or longer" in trying to get construction treated like agriculture, where employers can bring in workers if they show too few Americans are interested in the job.

A separate survey points the same way. John Burns Real Estate and Consulting, an independent housing research firm, reported that many roofers it surveyed earlier this year saw immigration enforcement as hurting their business. Elizabeth LaJeunesse, the firm's vice president for building products research, said the strength of the responses was surprising. "They're describing disappearing workers," she said, adding that most of these firms are fairly conservative. Duane Musser of the National Roofing Contractors Association said the responses are typical of what he hears from members.

Employers also face a pull problem. Pay is rising in the skilled trades, but Stateline reported it is hard to say how soon higher wages would draw more people. Tradespeople posting on social media cite long commutes, low-paid apprenticeships and a sense of being valued less than office workers. One 31-year-old Michigan tradesperson in plumbing and HVAC said top pay is attractive but many in the field make less than $70,000.

Industry is trying to change the image of the work. Ford Motor Company and the Ad Council announced a campaign to bring more young people into the trades. According to Stateline, Ford and "the alliance" did not mention immigration enforcement as an issue, though the contractors' association and the roofer survey both did.

For companies, the operational risk is schedule and cost rather than demand. Builders and manufacturers that compete for the same limited pool of skilled workers face delays, and Stateline described no quick fix. Training, wages and visa policy are each being pushed as a remedy, and none has yet been shown to close the gap. The weakest part of this account is its reliance on industry surveys and anonymous social media posts, which show perception rather than measured labormarket effects.

What to watch next

Whether wage gains and campaigns like Ford's draw more entrants, and whether Congress takes up trade-specific visas of the kind the contractors' association has long sought.