U.S. Nursing Home Operating Capacity Fell 5% Since 2019, Twice the Drop in Licensed Beds, Study Finds

The evidence is a cross-sectional, observational analysis. The researchers, led by McGarry and including David Grabowski and Michael Barnett, used 2018– 2024 patient census data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Payroll-Based Journal. Because the design is observational, it shows associations, not causes.

The gap between the two measures is the central finding. Licensed beds are what a facility is approved to hold. Operating capacity is an estimate of what it actually runs. The authors say the larger fall in operating capacity is potentially due to staffing shortages. That is their interpretation, not a proven cause.

The losses were uneven. One in four counties saw operating capacity fall by 15.1% or more, according to the study. The largest declines were more common in rural counties.

The staffing link is measurable but modest. In county-level analyses, a 1-percentagepoint decline in SNF capacity was associated with a 0.20-percentage-point increase in the frequency of reported staffing shortages (95% CI, 0.11–0.29).

The study also points to costs downstream. Hospitals near facilities that lost more capacity saw larger increases in mean length of stay, in the share of stays lasting 28 days or more, and in the median distance patients traveled to the SNF that admitted them. The authors write that this suggests lost operating capacity may be impairing access to care.

For operators, hospitals and investors, the strategic read is that licensed-bed counts and headline occupancy may overstate usable supply. Hospital systems that rely on timely discharge to postacute care may face longer stays and more distant placements where local capacity has dropped. Those are the study's findings. Any financial effect on hospitals or facilities is not measured in the study.

KFF Health News, in its coverage by Paula Span, adds context that goes beyond the study. It reports that Medicaid pays less than the daily cost of care, according to Clif Porter of the American Health Care Association. It also reports a median aide wage of $20.67 an hour, with about 40% of aides relying on public assistance, according to PHI. Those figures come from the coverage, not the study.

The coverage also cites experts who expect federal immigration and Medicaid policy to worsen supply. Grabowski told KFF Health News, "We're seeing a serious problem and it's heading in the wrong direction." Porter said the national effect of immigration changes is not yet significant, though it is felt in Florida, New York and Massachusetts. The study itself does not test any policy effect.

The coverage also notes other forces that may reduce demand for nursing homes, including assisted living and a shift toward home-based Medicaid services. Advocate Sam Brooks argued that poor quality drives people away.

What to watch next

Whether the capacity declines continue into 2025 data, and whether future research can separate staffing limits from financial pressure and falling demand as the cause.

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