THE ARISING · Markets & Strategy
GlobalData Forecasts Alzheimer's Drug Sales Rising Sixfold to $14.7 Billion by 2033
Alzheimer's drug sales in eight major markets could grow from $2.4 billion in 2023 to $14.7 billion by 2033, according to a GlobalData forecast reported by Longevity.Technology. That is about a sixfold increase.
The forecast covers the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Japan and China. According to the report, disease-modifying therapies are expected to make up 63.7% of sales by 2033, or nearly two-thirds of the market.
Two antibodies lead the projections. Eli Lilly's Kisunla (donanemab) is forecast at about $2.9 billion in 2033. Eisai and Biogen's Leqembi (lecanemab) is forecast at about $2.8 billion. Together, that is roughly $5.7 billion, according to the figures reported, so the two products would account for well under half of the total.
GlobalData names several drivers: an aging population, anti-amyloid antibodies, new drugs for agitation and psychosis, and easier-to-use subcutaneous and oral options. Among oral candidates, the report names AriBio's AR1001, Annovis Bio's buntanetap and Bristol Myers Squibb's Cobenfy for disease-related psychosis. According to the report, none has yet been proven in Phase III trials.
The forecast also carries constraints. According to GlobalData, the antibodies are expensive and need specialist infrastructure. Treatment requires confirmation of amyloid, infusions, and MRI monitoring for ARIA. GlobalData analyst Philippa Salter said the new therapies are "significantly more expensive than the current highly genericized symptomatic treatments."
Pricing pressure is already visible, according to the firm. Japan cut Leqembi's price by 15% in November 2025.
GlobalData's key opinion leaders also "do not believe that a single product will ever cure" Alzheimer's, and they expect combination approaches. This is the firm's expert view, not a forecast of any specific product mix.
The reported numbers suggest the market depends on two things: whether payers accept high prices, and whether clinics can deliver the testing and monitoring. What to watch next: further price cuts in other markets, and Phase III results for the oral candidates.
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