THE ARISING · Markets & Strategy
Bank of America: Retirements Among Workers Over 55 Drive Falling Labor Participation
Stock market gains may be doing something to the U.S. labor force that few employers planned for: helping older workers leave it.
According to Bank of America's economics team, led by Aditya Bhave, the biggest driver of the fall in overall labor force participation has been workers over age 55 leaving work. Labor force participation measures the share of people who are employed or looking for work. It never recovered after the shock of the pandemic.
The bank links the exits to wealth. "We think the surge in equity wealth has likely made it easier for many workers to retire," Bhave wrote. The S&P 500 has risen more than 30% over the past two years, according to the Yahoo Finance report. An earlier Bank of America analysis found a modest negative relationship between equity gains and older workers' participation. In plain terms, when stocks rise, older people tend to work slightly less. The analysis put it this way: "Who needs income if you have wealth?"
The finding also speaks to a debate about the labor market. Bhave wrote that it "debunks a popular bearish narrative" that the unemployment rate would have been higher if participation had not fallen. That is the bank's interpretation. The reasoning is that the drop comes mainly from older people choosing to retire, not from people giving up a job search.
For employers, the strategic point is about supply. The source describes a split. Older workers with portfolios can step away after a layoff. Younger workers who are laid off have had to apply elsewhere, switch careers or work independently. Companies that rely on experienced staff may find those workers harder to retain or rehire when markets are strong. That reading goes beyond the source, which does not survey employers.
The wealth is not evenly spread. A Bank of America Institute report published Wednesday found older households hold about three-quarters of total U.S. net worth. Yet around 14% of people on Social Security rely on it for more than 90% of their income. Those retirees are not living off booming accounts, and they may have less freedom to stop working.
The report fits with the Arising's October 7 coverage of Bureau of Labor Statistics data, cited by USA Today, showing participation among Americans 55 and older fell from 39.2% in February 2022 to 36.9% in July 2026. That piece documented the decline. This one offers Bank of America's explanation for it. They are separate pieces of analysis, and the bank's view rests on a modest statistical link, not proof of cause.
What to watch next
Whether older workers' participation tracks equity prices if stocks fall, since a market drop would test the wealth explanation directly.
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